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World Bank Releases Paper on Forecasting Local Climate for Policy Analysis

© World Bank July 2009: The World Bank has published a policy research working paper titled “Forecasting Local Climate for Policy Analysis – A Pilot Application for Ethiopia.”

The paper presents an approach to forecasting future climate at the local level using historical weather station and satellite data, as well as future projections of climate data from global climate models.

The paper was authored by Brian Blankespoor, Kiran Dev Pandey and David Wheeler and describes a method that can be applied to publicly-available data for any country and for any number of climate models. It does not depend on geographic scale and can be applied at the subnational, national, or regional levels. The paper illustrates the results for future climate for Ethiopia using future climate scenario projects by eight global climate models. [The paper]