WMO Experts Issue Update on Impacts of Climate Change on Tropical Cyclones

23 February 2010: The World Meteorological Organization's (WMO) Expert Team on Climate Change Impacts on Tropical Cyclones has published a scientific paper in Nature Geoscience, updating its 2006 assessment on possible consequences of climate change on tropical cyclones.

In particular, the Expert Team concluded that, if 21st century warming occurs as projected, there will likely be an increase, on average worldwide, in the maximum wind speed of tropical cyclones of +2 to +11%, and in rainfall rates of approximately 20% within 100 km of the storm centre. The experts concluded that the total number of tropical cyclones worldwide will likely either decrease or remain unchanged. However, a likely increase in tropical cyclone intensity means that the frequency of the strongest tropical cyclones is likely to increase under the projected warming scenarios.

An update of possible consequences of climate change on tropical cyclones has been completed and published in the March 2010 issue of the peer-reviewed journal Nature Geoscience. The Expert Team is composed of leading international researchers from five WMO member countries, in the field of tropical cyclones. [WMO Information Note]