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ITF Transport Outlook Considers Mobility in 2050

Transport Outlook 201125 May 2011: The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development's (OECD) International Transport Forum (ITF) has published a report titled “Transport Outlook 2011: Meeting the Needs of 9 Billion People,” that looks at future transport challenges and "very long run" trends in the coming decades.

On trends in transport over the next 40 years, the report finds that there will be three to four times as much passenger travel by 2050 as in 2000, with 2.5 to 3.5 as much freight activity, but that growth will be much stronger outside of the OECD group than within.

On the question of peaking car travel in advanced economies, the report notes that although travel by passenger vehicles has not increased much recently in these contexts, either a saturation effect or simple high energy costs could explain this, and it is unclear if a peak has indeed been reached.

On carbon dioxide emissions, the report indicates that emissions from vehicles may be 2.5-3 times higher in 2050 than 2000, unless fuel economy is approximately doubled.

The report also discusses: implications for tax revenues based on changing fuel economies; increasing demand for electric vehicles; and freight transport by sea and air. [Publication: Transport Outlook 2011: Meeting the Needs of 9 Billion People] [French Version]