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IFPRI Analyzes Climate Change Impacts on East African Agriculture

IfpriDecember 2013: The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) has released a book, titled 'East African Agriculture and Climate Change: A Comprehensive Analysis,' which examines food security threats posed by climate change facing ten countries of East and Central Africa.

As East Africa faces challenges related to food security, there is a need to better understand how climate change alters the adaptive responses necessary to feed a rapidly increasing population. The book explores future climate scenarios and identifies areas that are expected to be particularly hard hit. It examines the food security threats facing the following countries: Burundi, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Madagascar, Rwanda, Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda.

It underscores negative overall impacts on wheat, soybean, sorghum and irrigated rice, while maize and rainfed rice yields are expected to increase slightly due to some projected higher rainfall in some areas. The models suggest that global maize prices are likely to rise significantly by 2050, with an increase in maize yields by more than 50% between now and 2050. The report identifies locations that are likely to see improvements in growing conditions, as well as locations where certain crops will no longer be viable.

The book aims to be of use to policy makers through spatially explicit maps to identify climate hotspots, and through projecting changes based on climate, population, income and agricultural technology scenarios. The book is the second of three publications (covering West, East, and Southern Africa) that make up IFPRI's Climate Change in Africa series. IFPRI is a member of the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR). The report was released at the Association for Strengthening Agricultural Research in Eastern and Central Africa (ASARECA) General Assembly and Scientific Conference held in Burundi in early December 2013. [Publication: East African Agriculture and Climate Change: A Comprehensive Analysis] [IFPRI Publication Webpage] [IISD RS Story on IFPRI West African Report]