EEA, OSCE Brochure Promotes Scenario Building for Assessing Climate Change Impacts

28 November 2012: The Organization for Security Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) and the European Environment Agency (EEA) have published a brochure, titled "Using Scenarios to Improve Understanding of Environment and Security Issues," which summarizes the findings of a project to assess the security implications of climate change in Eastern Europe, the Western Balkans and Central Asia.

The brochure promotes a case-by-case scenario building analysis at the regional level to assess climate change's impact on security issues, considering the inability of current climate models to predict regional and national impacts. It explains that the first phase of the project consisted of: an expert workshop in December 2010 in Copenhagen, Denmark; and a scoping study on climate change and security, which focused on six priority areas, namely the Arctic, the Caucasus, Central Asia, Eastern Europe, South‑Eastern Europe and the southern Mediterranean.

The brochure summarizes the conclusions of three regional workshops that were organized in 2011. The Eastern European regional workshop in February 2011, focusing on food security, concluded that opportunities exist to improve food security if market liberalization and climate change adaptation are well managed. The Western Balkans workshop in October 2011 addressed climate change's impact on water availability. Participants found that while direct impacts on water supply and drinking water quality are critical concerns, indirect water-related risks, such as poverty and conflict arising from competition for scarce water resources, also need policy makers' attention. The Central Asia regional workshop in November 2011 addressed the water-energy-agriculture nexus. Participants underscored the need for early adaptation and a transition to a green economy with a focus on increased resource efficiency, and strengthened regional integration and good governance.

The brochure further explains that regional workshops on the Caucasus, the  Mediterranean and the Arctic regions will be held in 2013. The third phase of the project will then consist of a global workshop to discuss the various findings, and the production of a summary report. [EEA Press Release] [Publication: Using Scenarios to Improve Understanding of Environment and Security Issues]